If you’re in the airline industry, you must have heard about the misery of Jet Airways in the last few days. Half their pilots went on a “mass sick-leave”, causing almost 200 flights to be canceled per day, inconveniencing over 20,000 passengers resulting in absolute mayhem at the major airports, most of which tend to be chaotic on a good day.

Not very long ago, everyone was swooning over the re-birth of the romance of travel and airlines in India leading the pack. Business week had good words to say about Jet Airways, and even here on SimpliFlying, I did interviews with senior Jet executives.

Unfortunately, after two years of heavy losses, the brand was already tattering. A few months back, there was the employee sacking saga, and now, the mass sick-leave by the pilots is ruining the brand image built by the founder with great care over time. Sad but true.

And nowhere was this paradox more evident than on the front page of a leading Indian daily’s website. See it for yourself.
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Inspired from my earlier article about legacy airlines being dead, I’ve come up with this graphic to represent which legacy airlines we can look out for, and those which need to work very hard to survive the next decade. What do you think?

Recently, there has been a surge in online betting on an interesting issue – which would be the next airline to go bust? Below is a screenshot of one of those sites. From the odds, we can tell that FlyGlobespan and SkyEurope are the most likely to go bust very soon, and British Airways and Lufthansa are the commercial airlines least likely to go bust.

So, does that mean that airlines with stronger brands less likely to go bankrupt? It’s a lot about consumer perception and brand equity. Let’s discuss, and hopefully, we’ll reach a conclusion that derives a relationship between betting odds and brand equity!

This blog’s predictions that all-business class airlines would go extinct have come true, with British Airways making an offer of $107.3 million for the last remaining major all-business class airline – France’s L’Avion. With one less competitor operating between Paris and New York, BA’s new OpenSkies airline will be able to dominate the route. In fact, since L’Avion was also operating Boeing 757s, they may now be combined to form a fleet of three Boeing 757s for OpenSkies. According to Reuters, L’Avion started in January 2007 and has transported 65,000 passengers. But the going was certainly getting tough as the price of oil crossed $140 per barrel, evidence of which are the recent spate of bankruptcies in the airline industry.

Big bird BA picks up the last fish in the river (Image Credit: Esox Lucius)

How does this impact the British Airways and OpenSkies brands?

The effect of this acquisition on the parent airline’s brand should be generally positive, due to two key factors. Firstly, the lack of competition would surely help the OpenSkies brand since there is …

The recent spate of airline mergers – or merger talks – begs the question: Is it better for the industry if two airlines merge or one of them goes bankrupt. Verdict: It’s better if an airline goes bankrupt.

Here’re three reasons why bankruptcies are good for the industry overall.

Increases industry revenues. Many airlines are not making money because fares are too low, compared to costs. More bankruptcies mean less price competition for the remaining airlines. They can then raise fares with less fear of undercutting. This would help them cover costs, and increase profits for the industry overall. Cathay Pacific was able to optimize flight times between Hong Kong and Vancouver after Oasis HongKong went bust.By contrast, in mergers, the new combination of airlines takes long to rationalize routes, and when they do, they still charge low rates since fares never really increased the way they could have, due to sudden disappearance of competition from a route.
Dramatically lower costs. When airlines close for business, they lay off a large number of people. These people increase the labor supply in the market, and are hired by other airlines at lower wages. This reduces the overall wage component of the costs. When airlines go bust, they also get rid of their planes at very low prices. They are sold to other airlines, which can then put them on their under-serviced routes. Again, reducing the cost of the equipment. AirAsia is a great example of an airline, which inherited two planes with just a $0.50 down payment, and  was able to tap on the abundance of cheap labor, right after 9/11.

Oil prices reached $135 per barrel last week and have just claimed the latest victim: SilverJet. The all-business airline stopped operations today (Friday, May 30) since it failed to secure a $5 million loan to carry on operations. This now makes it three-in-three for all-business airlines operating between New York and London. MaxJet and EOS have shut down operations in the last year as well. Interestingly, SilverJet helped carry EOS’ passengers when the latter ceased operations. I wonder who will come to rescue SilverJet’s stranded passengers. (Update @ 30 May, 11.49pm: Virgin Atlantic is offering special fares to stranded SilverJet passengers)

(Image courtesy http://www.airflights.to)
The irony is that even as full-business class carriers go out of business, legacy airlines have been starting up all-business class routes recently. Singapore Airlines’ route between the city-state and Newark seems to be off to a good start. British Airways’ OpenSkies looks all set for launching operations too, and L’Avion still flies between Paris and New York. May be the difference is the deep pockets of the parent airlines, who sustain an unprofitable route much longer than greenhorns like SilverJet and Maxjet could.

Airlines are dropping from the skies like dead flies these days, especially in the US. And the bankruptcies have not been limited to just one category of airlines – everyone from budget carriers to luxury airlines seem to be going bust. The latest to fold up is Eos, the all-business class airline that operated between New York and London. Oasis HongKong folded in the long-haul budget airline category, and of course there were the multiple US airlines like Aloha, Skybus and ATA that have gone out of business within weeks of each other.

Ironically, a number of them seemed to have great brands! Aloha was rated as being the best airline in the US for service. Eos was right up there in the all-business airlines category and we wrote about them in a previous post. Oasis HongKong was a well known brand in the region as well. Reasons for failure are everywhere. But what are some lessons that can be learnt from the experiences of the airlines that were? Here are five of them. …